Guidebolt

Economics

Revised 2018.01.12

Direct and Indirect Exchange

Economics is founded on transactions involving trade and charity. Charity deals with gifts and volunteering. Trade deals with the direct and indirect exchange of goods and services, usually including money. The nuanced dynamics of trade and charity tackle the consistency and velocity of transaction patterns toward the consumption of final value in real goods and services.

Direct exchange involves a transaction of 2 parties where each party has something wanted by the other. Therefore the transaction incurs a reciprocal flow of goods and services; A to B, B to A.

Indirect exchange involves a transaction of 3 or more parties where each party only has something wanted by the next party. Therefore the transaction incurs a circular flow of goods and services; A to B, B to C, C to A.

Money transactions look like a direct exchange but are actually the indirect exchange of real goods and services. This truth hardened for fiat currencies after the historical loss of their gold/silver standard.

Money is not necessary for direct trade between trustworthy individuals.

Example: "I'll give you a nice haircut if you do an oil change for my car."

Money secures the immediacy of the transaction.

Example: "Stranger, I'll give you my basket of apples now but I don't trust you to follow up on your oranges tomorrow so easily. How about you lend me 1 of your silver coins now and then I'll return it for your basket of oranges tomorrow?"

Money facilitates the indirect exchange of real goods and services.

Example: "So let me get this straight. I give you apples, you give your friend oranges, then your friend gives me bananas? And we have to negotiate payment rates across all of that together? Sounds too complicated. How about you just pay me $20 for my basket of apples right now? The rest we can decide and sort out on our own time. Honestly, I think this is much more convenient for us."

Money can stagnate the indirect exchange of value. The habitual use of currency in every transaction can cause people to forget that they can form complex agreements for the indirect exchange of real goods and services.

Example: "Wait, you can't afford $20 right now for my apples? But you still want them. Well, it's too bad I have something you want and you have something your friend wants and your friend has something that I want but there's not enough money to make the transaction happen. I'm just kidding. Let's do it your way. Message your friend and we'll negotiate the amounts quickly. Then you can have my apples; I'll be expecting your friend's bananas by tomorrow."

The modern economy requires a balanced circulation of money where inflow must equal or exceed outflow for each region. The conventional term for this is the balance of trade, usually applied to the scope of whole countries.

Example: Suppose that a rural town's residents own $40 million in total cash. The town itself has complex network of exchange relationships and exports lumber for a net annual gain of $5 million dollars. Suppose that a big company enters the market and starts successfully competing with small businesses with the allure of low prices. The big company takes more money from the residents than it spends on the town, draining $10 million per year from the town to elsewhere. If this imbalance is not addressed, the town will suffer depressed business revenue into higher unemployment. The residents must consider that no matter how they exchange cash among themselves, their total cash value will continue to decrease as long as they continue to spend at the big store. Conventionally, the town has 2 options. Either its residents must decrease spending at the big store such that the net monetary drain through the big company decreases from $10 million to $5 million or less, to be equal to or below the lumber export gains. Or, the residents can increase their total inflow of money in some way to $10 million or greater, such as by growing their lumber exports (but would it be sustainable?) or seeking additional funding from the government (but that's just passing the burden to other people). The consistent solution is to directly export to whoever the big company buys from excessively, completing the circle.

Market Mechanics

A modern market is a digital platform on which buyers and sellers issue orders. When a buy order is placed, the market platform takes the money then tries to process the order. When a sell order is placed, the market platform takes the goods then tries to process the order.

Limit Order. Buys or sells a requested quantity at a specified price or better based on what is available on the market. Example. A limit order to buy 2kg of lettuce at $1 per kg first checks if there are any available limit sell orders for that price. If no matching order is available, the limit order is placed into the market in sequence behind the other limit orders at the specified price. The advantage is that you are guaranteed to receive your desired price or better if the order gets processed. The risk is that the order may not be processed immediately or even for a while, since there must be a matching buyer or seller on the other side willing to trade for your desired price.

Market Order. Buys or sells a requested quantity at the best possible price available on the market. Example. A market order to buy 1 kg of lettuce is immediately fulfilled by a matched limit sell order of 10kg at $2 per kg. The advantage is that your order is likely to get processed immediately. The risk is that you do not control what price you end up paying; you may end up buying at a high premium or selling at a huge discount if you placed the order during volatile market conditions.

Assorted

Supply and demand dictate the ease of production and the priorities of desire. To sustain a stable economy, the money must flow. Healthy monetary circulation needs a fast velocity of money and a high employment rate. Local spending is effective because it shortens the boomerang period for money to recirculate back to each household and business. The longer the boomerang period, the smaller the average income across the waiting time. Within the chaos of individual transactions, the indirect reciprocity of demand is essential.

The stability of an economy is marked by the prevention of artificial problems born of economic abstraction, and protection against real economic shocks due to natural, cultural, and technological shifts.

In this concise guide, we will evaluate the economy using the consistency-equilibrium-velocity model, then cover growth in that context. We will focus on boomerang demand and the significance of its flow. We will identify the primary killers of all modern market economies, velocity chokes and impossible boomerangs, then address them with general solutions.

Consistency

Consistency deals with the durability of supply and demand over time. A town certainly demands food. The town may demand apples. The town may demand 100 apples one day and 4000 apples on another. The town may strongly demand one type of apple or weakly demand twenty types of apples. If the apple farms are located in a safe, environmentally stable region, supply is likely to remain stable. Consistency of supply and demand brings the predictability that businesses desire towards low-risk revenue streams.

The study of consistency involves market saturation, cyclic demand, insurance plans, product substitution, production lead-time, subscription programs, demand evaluation, and re-training.

For instance, market saturation causes demand to fall towards the rate of product expiration. Consider a population that has 1 million refrigerators that last 10 years. Although refrigerator sales might have been an incredible 500K per year for the first 2 years, the market is now saturated. As the population is only interested in replacing their refrigerators when they go bad, average demand falls to 100K per year. If the refrigerator industry wants to improve their annual revenue after hitting complete market saturation, they will have to trigger a resaturation curve by innovating a better refrigerator with compelling marginal value. If a new product is better by leaps and bounds, consumers will buy it much before their current one expires. Resaturation is particularly enticing for consumers when it is for products that have a performance drop-off curve, such as hard drives that fail intermittently and more frequently before they fail completely.

Equilibrium

Equilibrium is a sustainable state of the economy that has converged from a consistent balance of total supply and demand despite inconsistent individual actions.

In order to understand equilibrium, consider a simplified economy containing a population of households that work for and demand goods from 10 sectors such as food, water, housing, healthcare, ... , government, and other. Assume that the population spends all of their income on consumption uniformly across all sectors. Then simulate the monthly flow of demand where 100% of the population spends 10% of their income on the food industry to have its individual businesses pay 10% of the population for 100% of their incomes. Repeat this flow for the 9 remaining sectors to get 100% of the population spending 100% of their income to pay 100% of the population for 100% of their incomes. This is a 1-layer equilibrium model with both the population and the sectors on the same plane, rotating the demand for labor and goods on a monthly basis.

Equilibrium is largely determined by the boomerang trajectory of demand as it flows from all households to all businesses then back to all households. Every purchase represents the next step in the storm of boomerang demand within a greater equilibrium.

Equilibrium is complicated by the supply chains intertwined across businesses. The revenue of a single business cascades into the revenue of several other businesses. For example, grocery stores and restaurants are backed by separate companies that deal with freight, supplies, packaging, processing, and agriculture. Core industries such as water, fuel, and electricity are instrumental not only to all households but also to all businesses. Therefore the total revenue of an industry fragments into the partial revenue of other industries. Supply chains force our model to evolve into a multi-layer equilibrium where the population sits at the center of a sphere of industries with the closest being the first to catch household boomerangs.

Equilibrium requires that all households and businesses spend 100% of their income on average to prevent a deficit in boomerang demand. For instance, any household that spends only 90% of their income must be offset by a household spending 110% of their income by delving into their savings or credit. In a given month, if the average spending ends up less than 100%, then some household will lose income, whether directly through salary or indirectly through lower business profits. The spending can be any combination of consumption and investment. Complete spending is particularly important by the workers and owners of core industries as they are the foundation and final bastion of long-term equilibrium.

Equilibrium can survive incomplete spending in the short-term by having certain households and businesses spend from their savings or credit. A large money supply and healthy credit base facilitates this type of limited equilibrium. However, as savings dwindle and debts accumulate toward the precipice of bankruptcy, the return of complete spending becomes increasingly important.

When incomplete spending exerts sufficient pressure on households and businesses, they have a decision to either lower their spending budget or wait for a recovery in overall spending. If they lower their spending budget, the economy may re-establish an equilibrium at that lower point, generally with higher unemployment and lower median income. If they wait for a recovery by complete or excess spending, the burden falls on the cash wealthy to spend a late boomerang back to the rest of the economy. Notably, recovery from debt is harder than recovery from low savings because of the dependency on the financial sector to also boomerang their interest income back to the rest of the economy.

The resilient recovery of long-term equilibrium in the face of incomplete household spending is reinforced by central banking and business investment. Central banking provides the flexible money supply required to counteract idle money, the root of slow and impossible boomerang demand. Business investment provides new household income and attracts new boomerang demand, preserving or improving income and employment rates; importantly, through faster use of the remaining active money supply.

Effective equilibrium requires balance not only in total boomerang demand, but also with the flow of demand across enough of the population; so as to sustain the employment of each individual household. Consider an economy where the food industry sees a consistent monthly revenue of 1 billion dollars. Despite the consistency of total industry revenue, next month may see half of all food businesses grow by 50% in revenue and the other half lose 50%, enough to go out of business. Similarly, while most workers enjoy the stability of a fixed salary, their businesses still bear the burden of capturing demand flow. If enough demand does not flow to a specific business, it will go down along with its workers regardless of whether or not they feel the flow pressure. Clearly, a balance in total boomerang demand does not equal a balance in specific boomerang demand.

Demand flow can be evaluated in terms of its directness to working households in the population. Some paths are quite direct, such as buying food from the grocery store or a house from a construction company. Some paths lead to a vortex of idle money and inefficient boomerang ratios, such as high stakes gambling where a large sum of money may sit around and exchange hands but largely not where it can easily flow back to households. An efficient flow of demand circulates across households with sufficient uniformity for survival and a degree of prosperity.

Having covered the significance of boomerang demand and its specific flow, we can now expand our equilibrium model to consider different types of investment spending.

Spending on simple wealth, such as precious metals or housing, has similar effects as consumption- when demanding from a producer, such as a construction company. Yet, simple wealth from a secondary market usually has poor flow because the boomerang path is more connected to the rebalancing of a wealth portfolio than towards the income of working households. Simple wealth that provides a necessity, such as home ownership in place of rent, promotes stability through the reduction of dependency. Simple wealth that provides trade value, such as selling gold during hard times, promotes stability as protection against flow shocks.

Spending on issuing debt, such as supplying student loans or acquiring company bonds, can be treated like owning a part of the debtor’s income as it flows in. Debt payments incur an extra transaction on flow. Consumer debt generally hurts total boomerang demand because of higher marginal savings rates and lower flow efficiency on concentrated income.

Spending on business wealth, such as ownership of a convenience store or manufacturing company, affects equilibrium and useful value with wide variance. Automation frees up time spent in drudgery, but causes technological unemployment that shocks both boomerang and flow, necessitating re-training. A business that supplants an existing one may sell a better product, but may not improve boomerang or flow as the other business and its employees are beaten out. A business that truly improves equilibrium is one that offers new value, attracts untapped demand, and builds short paths for specific boomerangs to flow, ideally within the local area.

Velocity

Velocity deals with the speed and value of transactions in the flow of demand, often modeled as the velocity of money.

The factors of velocity determine the speed limits and flow compatibility of equilibrium.

Consider a large economy that requires a 10 billion dollar monthly boomerang, but tries to function with a money supply of only 1 million dollars. Even with fast transfer technology and excellent flow paths, the economy will have great difficulty circulating just its survival boomerangs. For example, even if all households and businesses with money make 10 transactions per day, that only yields a velocity of 300 million dollars per month- far lower than the required boomerang value. A stable economy requires a sufficiently high velocity of money that is enabled by a large money supply.

Consider a small economy that has an unusually high tax rate, but tries to function with slow government spending and a barely large enough money supply. Businesses hold onto the tax money until the next tax payment date, causing idle money. The government holds onto the tax money after it is received, causing idle money. Although the government can eventually spend the money towards effective demand flow, the economy may still decay from an overly slow boomerang effect due to the constant inefficient flow into holding accounts. Yet if money transfer technology improves enough, the economy may recover a prosperous equilibrium. A stable economy requires a sufficiently high velocity of money that balances the strength of velocity factors against the efficiency of demand flow.

Credit transactions, where the promise of payment is used in lieu of immediate money, are an excellent way to commit transactions by artificially extending the money supply. However, while credit transactions clarify the path of future money flow, the money transfers themselves still remain speed-limited by technology and settlement delays.

The overarching imperative of velocity is for households and businesses to be willing and able to spend their money quickly. Unfortunately, modern households and businesses are not incentivized for immediate spending for several reasons. First, most households have salaried jobs that would not directly benefit from boomerang demand even if it comes back to the business they work for. Second, strong cashflow protects businesses from short-term risks, so they have a defensive reason to hold onto money until nearing the due dates of their payables. Third, the returning benefits are unclear and risky because demand flow is complex to predict with modern economic tools. Fourth, the time value of money incentivizes holding money to earn a small, safe, short-term return on investment until the time comes to settle payables. Fifth, households and businesses take time to decide on spending decisions.

Because most households earn a fixed salary, full employment caps the velocity of consumer spending, moving the economy towards a zero-sum consumer market. Before full employment, consumer velocity improves simply by hiring new workers. After full employment, consumer velocity improves only when workers receive greater income. Thus an important factor of improving consumer velocity is for new entrants in the workforce to earn greater income than their predecessors.

Growth

Growth can lift an economy in equilibrium into ever-greater heights of prosperity. Yet growth of certain parts of the economy can be the roots of its downfall.

Let us consider the primary killers of all modern market economies: velocity chokes and impossible boomerangs.

Velocity chokes are best understood using an example with debt. In the section on equilibrium, we covered that loans are like owning a part of the debtor’s income, just with an extra payment transaction. Loans were also deemed fine for equilibrium as long as the financial sector returned their income to preserve total boomerang demand. Now consider a case where consumer debt has grown so large that the financial sector is unable to spend and return their income fast enough, even despite knowing what they will spend it on. Additionally, immense pressures are placed on the outward flow from the financial sector to move the money fast enough. More specifically, consider a trillion dollar money supply funneled into the financial sector through a trillion dollars of monthly debt payments. Such over-concentration of flow is inevitable if the financial sector is only and riskily willing to spend on new loans from a population drunk with debt-fuelled speculation. This was the cascade of events leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Debt is the one type of investment spending that cannot be sustainably accumulated, lest it choke the economy as its equilibrium needs break through modern velocity limits. Velocity chokes come from the convergence of flow that surpasses the velocity limits of the funneling node, regardless of the efficiency of the remaining flow map.

Impossible boomerangs are best understood using an example with idle money. In the section on equilibrium, we covered that incomplete spending was compensated by central banking and business investment- providing both a flexible money supply and the market force to accelerate the active money supply. Accordingly, recovering households would have time to improve their financial conditions through the accelerated spending of middle class households. In the advent of the 2008 stockmarket crash, households and banks and other businesses all became sharply reluctant to invest their money. As incomplete spending skyrocketed, immense pressure fell on the private sector to accelerate middle-class demand towards an overall economic recovery. Unfortunately, the flow map was saturated with such lingering debt and dead end pressure that even great business investments looked to evaporate into idle money. Facing the prospect of a depression, the public sector stepped up to inject active money into the economy by taking on debt from those who were too risk-averse to invest in business but accepting enough for national debt. A difficult recovery ensued. Boomerang demand is an absolute requirement of a stable economy dependent on circulating money across wealthy sectors. Impossible boomerangs come from the fragmentation of flow that surpasses the acceleration limits of the active money supply, regardless of the potential velocity of the remaining flow map.

General solutions exist against velocity chokes and impossible boomerangs. While velocity chokes can occur from different means such as debt or taxes, they fundamentally build up from an exponential or overly disproportionate relationship in the economy, such as the market for home construction and ownership against the mortgage industry. Home mortgages backed by sound income are sustainable, while boundless speculative mortgages are simply not. The private and public sectors can avoid velocity chokes by understanding the equilibrium constraints of the real economic relationships they play within the greater flow map- several levels of rationality above the speculative prospect of profit. Moving on, impossible boomerangs land from the simple reluctance to spend money, with flow efficiency as a secondary concern. Given any money supply, some households and businesses are holding all that money. Households in debt and with low net worth should not be expected to overspend, so it’s up to the middle class, upper class, and wealthy institutions to shoulder the responsibility. As explained before, spending on loans does not work here sustainably, akin to issuing new debt to have debtors pay old debts. Simply, the economy can avoid impossible boomerangs with sufficient consumption, producible wealth investment, business investment, and philanthropy. Consider both velocity chokes and impossible boomerangs as vehicles of economic war between those who see, teach, value, and spend appropriately on real economic relationships- and those who want or care too little to let the nation slide into a state of disrepair.

Economic growth is effectively measured in real GDP, but we must be steadfast in prioritizing sustainability and real marginal value as well. Sustainability deals with not only the stable abstractions of boomerang demand and its flow map, but also the physical constraints of the real world. Real marginal value constitutes technologies and experiences that are proactively better; the reactive recovery after a natural disaster is good and grows the economy, but generally does not put people’s lives in a better position than before the disaster. The bright road to great economic growth is multi-faceted and finds stability in the strength of smart institutions, patriotic investors, and meaningful middle-class jobs.